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When the Russian car market starts to grow. Forecast for several years from “Technology of Trust”

Analysts from the Technology of Trust company said that sales of new passenger cars in Russia in 2022 will decrease by 28% and amount to approximately 1.1 million units.

“In 2022, sales of new passenger cars, excluding light commercial vehicles, are expected to decline by 28%. The implementation of the forecast will depend mainly on the macroeconomic situation and the preservation of government support measures, including through lending,” the Technology of Trust review says.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade expects the car market to fall to 750,000 cars, while the Russian Association of Auto Dealers (RoAD) makes a more modest forecast of 500,000 cars.

“Technology of Trust” believes that in the event of increased sanctions pressure, a deterioration in the macroeconomic situation, a further reduction in imports, as well as ongoing problems with the logistics of supplying components and a massive withdrawal of players from the market, sales of new “cars” may fall this year by about 50%, up to 760 thousand units.

“The automotive market in Russia today is undergoing a restructuring in all areas – production, imports, services, financial services, but so far there has not been a mass exodus of players. So far, only deliveries have been stopped, market players are thinking, and a final decision has not been made, ”said Victoria Sinichkina, director of the automotive practice at Trust Technologies.

Analysts are sure that, starting from 2023, the Russian car market will begin to recover and add about 6% annually, reaching 1.32 million cars in 2023 and 1.58 million in 2024. By 2028, with such dynamics, its volume should grow to 1.78 million units.

“Asian brands will actively increase their market share, including in the premium car segment. Despite the fact that the environmental agenda in the world is receding into the background, the innovative segment — electric vehicles — will grow in Russia,” added Victoria Sinichkina.

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