Alexander Sokolov, a leading researcher at the Institute for Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences and developer of a mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow, said that if 100% of Muscovites wear masks by December 31, the number of new cases of coronavirus per day in the capital will drop to 220, and soon will become zero altogether. To defeat the epidemic, it will be enough if masks are worn by 90% of Muscovites. Then, by February 1, 2022, not a single new case will be registered. But if 50% of Muscovites wear masks, then on December 31, 1,400 cases will be identified.
For the calculations, official data on the number of new cases per day, the rate of vaccination, the number of daily tests, and so on were used. In addition, the regularity of contacts between citizens, the level of migration and other significant factors were taken into account.
If the Omicron strain spreads in the capital, the model may suggest wearing masks for longer. Now, it is estimated that only 20% of Muscovites follow the mask regime. If the indicator remains at the current level, then in the New Year the number of infections per day will be at the level of 3.5 thousand. In March, it can grow to 5 thousand. If you do not wear masks at all, then by the New Year there will be up to 5.6 thousand new infections. By February 2022, in this case, more than 10 thousand cases per day will be recorded.