It was based on data from the IBTrACS database, which contains the most extensive information about hurricanes and tropical cyclones since 1851. The base also includes modern measurements from satellites and aircraft from the 1940s.
First, a digital map of reconstructed sea routes in the Atlantic and the trajectories of modern hurricanes was created. Scientists also calculated the likelihood of collisions between ships and hurricanes. It turned out that a significant number of early storms were likely overlooked in historical records. Therefore, there is a high probability that hurricane activity has not changed over the past 150 years. But such results do not take into account the possibility of changing hurricane trajectories.
To clarify, experts have developed three climate models in the past, combining them with a hurricane model, which allows you to track the development of tropical storms and their trajectories. All models showed an increase in hurricanes in the North Atlantic as early as 150 years ago. In addition, it was possible to find out that in the 70-80s of the XX century there was a so-called. hurricane drought – reduction in the number of storms. At the same time, in other regions of the world, tendencies towards activity or decrease in hurricanes are not observed.
Experts believe that the reason is the cooling of the Atlantic due to sulfate aerosols as products of combustion of fossil fuels. But it has not yet been possible to answer the question of why hurricane activity is increasing.
