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Retail Inflation Data: Will there be relief from expensive EMIs after the fall in wholesale and retail inflation?

Inflation Data: In November, the retail inflation rate has come down to an 11-month low of 5.88 per cent. It is a matter of relief that the inflation rate has come below the upper band of RBI’s tolerance level of 6 percent. The retail inflation rate data has been announced on December 12, 4 days after the announcement of RBI’s monetary policy. While on December 8, the RBI had increased the repo rate by 35 basis points. But the question arises whether after the fall in the retail inflation rate, there will be a break in the process of increasing the interest rates? Will there be a pause from here on EMI? Experts believe that the interest rates will not decrease for the time being, but the process of increase in the repe rate can stop here.

Break on rising interest rates

According to Vrinda Jagirdar, former Chief Economic Advisor of SBI, the trend of decreasing inflation is visible. Worries about inflation will reduce. If inflation is low then RBI will not make any change in the repo rate in the upcoming monetary policy. According to Vrinda Jagirdar, even though the retail inflation rate has come down, there is no hope of reduction in the interest rates as many countries of the world are struggling with inflation. He said that even though we have got relief from domestic inflation, the danger of imported inflation still remains. That’s why there is a need to keep an eye on it. Also, in the next year 2023, a lot will depend on the monsoon in June.

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There is a fear of inflation

Worries about inflation have not ended yet. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in Parliament that the government is keeping an eye on inflation and will take all steps to reduce it. It is clear that the government also believes that it will take time to get complete relief from inflation. There may have been a decrease in the retail inflation rate in November, but when the retail inflation rate figures for the months of December and January will be announced, then an increase can be seen in it. Right now only food inflation has got relief but core inflation remains high. It would be futile to expect cheap loans in America and Europe until inflation comes down.

No relief from expensive EMI yet!

It is clear that if you are expecting interest rates to come down after the fall in retail inflation, then put that hope in cold storage. Because your EMI is not going to be cheap at the moment. But it is certain that the process of increasing interest rates can stop here. This means that your EMI can remain the same for the next several months. While announcing the monetary policy to be presented in February, RBI should not make any change in the repo rate.


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