Nifty Target for 2024: The stock market is continuously making records of growth. On December 11, Sensex crossed 70 thousand for the first time, while Nifty again crossed the level of 21000 and made its all-time high. Recently, the central ruling party BJP has won significantly in three big states, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. This was being considered as the semi-final before the general elections to be held in 2024. BJP’s big victory in 3 states has indicated political stability, due to which there is a rally in the markets. Growth indicators are also in the market’s favor. Brokerage house Axis Securities says that the Indian economy is on a strong path of growth. If BJP gets a clear mandate in the general elections, rates are cut and global instability reduces, then in the bull case Nifty Target will touch the level of 25000 by the end of 2024.Stock Market Outlook) Can do. In the base case it can go up to the level of 23000.
Indian economy on the right path of growth
Brokerage house Axis Securities says that the Indian economy is on the right path of growth and remains stable compared to the unstable global economy. The brokerage is positive about India’s long term growth story. The brokerage says that increasing capex will help banks improve credit growth. These factors will determine whether Indian equities can easily deliver double digit returns in the next 2-3 years supported by double digit earnings growth. Nifty’s earnings are expected to grow at 14% CAGR during the financial year 2023-26. Our estimate for FY24/25 is 5 percent below street expectations. Financials remain the largest contributor to FY24/25 earnings. We also see continuation of political stability after the 2024 general elections in our base case.
Target of 23000 for Nifty
The brokerage has estimated a target of 23000 for Nifty by the end of 2024 in the base case. This is a growth of 13 percent as compared to December 1, 2023. The current level of India’s Volatility Index i.e. VIX is below its long term average, which shows that the market is currently in the neutral zone (neither panic nor euphoria). While the mid to long term outlook for the overall market remains positive, we may see volatility in the short term and the market could react in either direction. With this in mind, the current setup is to buy when the market dips.
Nifty 25000 in bull case
In the bull case, the brokerage has given a target of 25000 for Nifty. The brokerage says we value Nifty at 22x, which translates into a Dec 2024 target of 25,000, which is 23% higher than Dec 1’23 levels. Apart from the success of the soft landing in the US market, the brokerage’s bull case view depends on the overall reduction in volatility. Currently, we are at the peak of the rate hike cycle and the possibilities of a soft landing have strengthened further in the last one month. The market is currently expecting a rate cut by the US Fed around May-June’24 and developments related to the same will be closely watched by the market. If the market moves smoothly over the next 1 or 2 quarters, we will see cash flows as well as triggers for the next level in emerging markets. In the bull case, we expect Nifty earnings to grow at 16% CAGR over FY23-26. This, in turn, will increase the market multiple.
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In the Biya case, the brokerage has valued Nifty at 16x, which translates into a target of 18,500 for December 2024. This is a decline of 9 percent from the level of December 1, 2023. A bear case can happen when in the event of not getting a clear mandate in the 2024 general elections, there is a sentiment of political instability and the market will trade at average valuations. The challenges will increase further due to inflation.