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Indian Economy: Prediction of Raghuram Rajan, coming year can be challenging for India

Raghuram Rajan Bharat Jodo Yatra: Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that if India achieves 5 percent economic growth rate in the next financial year 2023-24, then it will be called very lucky. Rajan said that the current year has been affected a lot due to the war (Russia-Ukraine war) but the coming year is going to be very challenging.

Rahul took Rajan’s interview

Rahul himself interviewed the former RBI Governor who reached Rajasthan to join the Bharat Jodo Yatra of former Congress President Rahul Gandhi. In which, while answering the questions, Raghuram Rajan said that there will be a decrease in the growth rate in the whole world next year. Interest rates are being increased continuously. And its effect is going to affect India as well. Interest rates have also increased in India but exports from India are continuously decreasing. The inflation in India is due to the rise in commodity prices, there is inflation of greens and vegetables. This will work as a negative for development.

GDP is only 2 percent!

Regarding the GDP figures, Raghuram Rajan said that in some way you are measuring the GDP figures, it matters a lot. Last year was very bad for us. If you compare with that year then you will see the figures better. But it would be correct that you compare the economic growth rate with the year before the epidemic. He said that if you compare 2022 with 2019, then the GDP growth rate becomes only 2 percent, which is very less for us. When Rahul asked him what was the reason for this, Rajan said that the pandemic was a big reason, but the slowdown in the Indian economy had already come before the Corona pandemic. We came down from 9 per cent to 5 per cent. We have not done the reforms that we should have done to speed up the economic growth rate.

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Growing economic inequality

On the question of increasing economic inequality in the country, Raghuram Rajan said that inequality is increasing in the country. Despite the pandemic, the income of the upper middle class has increased because they could work from home. Those who were poor had to go to the factories for employment and the factories were closed. This inequality has increased further during the Corona epidemic. Rajan said that the poorest of the poor got food grains and other facilities. Those who are rich did not need to worry. But the lower middle class has suffered the most. Jobs have stopped, unemployment is rising, loans are getting expensive. In such a situation, they have suffered a lot and policy should be made for them. There is a lot of pain there. He said that we are not against capitalism but against monopoly.

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India is harmed by the crisis in America

Rajan said that inflation is increasing in America and the Central Bank is trying to reduce inflation, so interest rates are being increased, but this will reduce the pace of production. The loss for India is that our exports will reduce. Due to which our production will be affected.

Export ban is against the interests of farmers

Rajan said that small companies in the country have to face many regulatory difficulties in becoming big. Rajan said that we say that this is a country of farmers, but the export-import policy in the country is made keeping in mind the middle class and the people living in the cities. He said that when the price of onion increases, we import it, due to which the price of the crop falls for our farmers, in such a situation it is very important to have a permanent policy. He said that export should not be banned as it is against the interests of the farmers.

Focus will have to be given on the services sector

Raghuram Rajan said that unemployment is a big problem. The emphasis of the people is on government jobs because there are many facilities like pension. In such a situation, employment should be increased in the private sector. He said that employment opportunities can be created in the services sector and we should emphasize on that.

Modi government targeted

Targeting the Modi government, Rajan said that unless there is harmony within the country, our borders cannot remain secure. He said that people are saying that we can fight, we can suppress the minorities and we will become strong, but this cannot happen.



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