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“If the current quarantine system is maintained, the number of confirmed corona19 in Korea is 10,000 a day at the end of January”

If Korea maintains the current quarantine system, it is predicted that the number of domestic cases of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) will reach 10,000 a day by the end of January next year.

On the 30th, Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine, Gachon University of Medicine, announced this in the online forum ‘Corona Infection, Will I Be Okay This Winter’, co-hosted by the Korean Federation of Science and Technology Societies, the Korean Academy of Medicine, and the Korean Academy of Science and Technology.

He disclosed the calculation results of the infectious disease epidemic prediction algorithm using artificial intelligence (AI) carried out with the support of the Ministry of Science and ICT (Ministry of Science and ICT) and the Information and Communication Industry Promotion Agency, and predicted that Korea’s future Corona 19 situation would be more unfavorable than other countries. did.

He explained, “Western countries, which have started to recover quickly in stages, have a 3 to 10 times higher rate of antibody formation than Korea,” he said.

Professor Jung said, “If we reflect the recent data on COVID-19 patients, by January (next year), the number of COVID-19 patients will reach nearly 7,000 (one day in Korea) and more than 10,000 by the end of January. It is showing results that deviate from the modeling results due to the reduction of the aggravating effect of

“After the delta mutation appeared, it became difficult to completely solve the current situation through vaccination,” he explained.

Professor Jeong emphasized that “the strategy of reducing the damage caused by COVID-19 and the strategy of distributing the damage should be carried out in parallel.” “It is important to increase the vaccination rate and rapidly disseminate oral treatments, as well as to gradually ease quarantine.”

Another presenter at the forum, Kim Yun, professor of medical management at Seoul National University College of Medicine, responded to some claims that the utilization rate of hospital beds for critically ill patients in some areas, including Seoul, had reached the limit, saying, “Currently, the proportion of non-emergency and non-critically ill patients in the intensive care unit is 10-30%. “Considering this, I think we can secure 1,000 to 2,000 more beds for seriously ill patients than we currently have,” he said.

Professor Kim said, “The average length of stay for a patient in the intensive care unit is about 3 to 4 days.”

However, Professor Seo Ji-young of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Samsung Seoul Hospital (the next president of the Korean Society of Critical Care Medicine), who appeared as a panelist on Professor Kim’s opinion, said, “If you look at the government announcements, they say that they have secured ‘a few’ beds for patients with severe COVID-19, but in the current system, 19 It is true that the number of medical personnel and hospital beds taking care of general critically ill patients decreases as much as the beds for critically ill patients.”

Professor Seo said, “In the current system, regardless of the severity of the patient, once a certain hospital says ‘a seat is available’, the patient is assigned unconditionally.” This must be done,” he advised.

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