Recently, the gaming industry has been in a dark streak — studios are going bankrupt, companies are making cuts, projects are canceled. And this, the expert predicts, is just the beginning.
Helldivers 2
Journalists GamesIndustry.biz spoke with Matt Piscatella, an employee of the analytical company Circana. He is confident that in 2024 the industry will face a drop in sales by 2% at best, but the figure may reach 10%. Gamers are in no hurry to spend money, and the hitherto unseen vagueness of market prospects is to blame – no one knows exactly when the new console hardware will appear and whether it will spur the interest of the public or not, and the premieres of blockbusters like Grand Theft Auto VI are scheduled only for 2025.
In recent months, the most successful titles have been Palworld and Helldivers 2. But according to Piscatella, their numbers are nothing compared to Hogwarts Legacy, the main blockbuster of 2023, which is still making money.
The year will be especially difficult for retail. It’s already going through hard times due to the departure of the entire industry to “digital”, but now, without another Nintendo console on the horizon, things are even worse than usual.
Retail depends on Nintendo much more than other platforms.
Matt Piscatella, however, openly admits that Circana is by no means omniscient. The agency has a lot of blind spots due to digital sales (they are harder to track, and the notorious Nintendo does not share metrics at all), plus the specifics of the industry with constantly moving release dates also make it difficult to form a clear picture of the state of affairs.
However, Piscatella is confident that the drop in sales is a temporary problem, and the industry will recover over time. But he doesn’t know for sure.