Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Budget 2024: Bull or bear in February after the budget? History has been 50:50

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Stock Market Performance Post Budget Month: Today, on February 1, 2024, going away from the trend, on Budget Day (Budget 2024), there was pressure in the stock market throughout the day and in the end a decline was seen. In today’s trading, Sensex has fallen by 107 points and it has closed at the level of 71645. Whereas Nifty fell 28 points and closed at the level of 21,697. There was pressure on IT, metal, pharma and realty shares in today’s trading. While buying in bank, financial, auto, and FMCG stocks. Although the markets became weak during the budget month and budget day, after the budget i.e. in the post-budget month, the sentiment of bulls and bears in Sensex and Nifty has been half.

If we talk about the budget presented in the year 2010 to 2024, then in 11 out of 15 times the market has fallen first after the budget. Whereas during 2010 to 2023, after the budget, the market has strengthened 7 out of 14 times. In such a situation, at present, we can keep an eye on some better themed stocks, which may rise post budget.

Stock market performance in post budget month

2023: There was a decline in the market in the post budget month of 2023. After the budget on February 1, both Sensex and Nifty fell by around 1 percent and 1.5 percent in one month.
2022: There was a decline in the post budget market in the year 2022. However, there were some global factors including Corona virus behind the decline. After the budget on February 1, Sensex weakened by 2616 points or 4.5 percent in one month. Whereas Nifty declined by 4 percent.
2021: In the post-budget month of 2021, Sensex had gained 2.6 percent. While Nifty strengthened by 2 percent.
2020: In the year 2020, after the budget, Sensex has fallen by about 3.5 percent in one month. Whereas Nifty weakened by 3.1 percent.
2019: In the year 2019, after the budget, Sensex has increased by 4.6 percent in one month. While Nifty strengthened by 1 percent.
2018: In the year 2018, after the budget, Sensex recorded a decline of 5.18 percent in one month. Whereas Nifty weakened by 6 percent.
2017: Post budget market strengthened in the year 2017 and Sensex strengthened by 3 percent in 1 month. While Nifty strengthened by 2.1 percent.
2016: In the year 2016 too, the market remained bullish after the budget. Sensex strengthened by 6.5 percent in the post budget month. While Nifty strengthened by 10.7 percent.
2015: In the year 2015, after the budget, Sensex fell by 4.7 percent in one month. Whereas Nifty weakened by 4.6 percent.
2014: In the year 2014, after the budget, Sensex strengthened by about 6.69 percent in one month. While Nifty strengthened by 7.4 percent.
2013: In the year 2013, after the budget, Sensex weakened by 0.14 percent in one month. Whereas Nifty weakened by 0.2 percent.
2012: In the year 2012, after the budget, Sensex fell by 1.80 percent in one month. Whereas Nifty weakened by 1.7 percent.
2011: In the year 2011 also there was a post budget rally in the market and in one month the Sensex strengthened by 6.28 percent. While Nifty strengthened by 8.5 percent.
2010: In the post-budget month of 2010, Sensex strengthened by 7.40 percent.

Market condition in Pre Budget Month

2023: In the budget month, both Sensex and Nifty indices have closed in the red. In January 2024, the Sensex fell by more than half a percent while the Nifty fell marginally by 0.04 percent.
2022: The last budget was presented on 1 February 2022. From the pre-budget month i.e. from January 1, 2022 to January 31, 2022, the Sensex had fallen by 1169 points i.e. 2 percent.
2021: In the pre-budget month of 2021, the Sensex fell from the level of 47868 to the level of 46286. Sensex had fallen by 1582 points or 3.3 percent.
2020: In the year 2020, between January 1 and January 31, the Sensex fell by 1.28 percent.
2019: After the Narendra Modi government came back to power in the year 2019, the budget was presented on July 5. Between June 5 and July 4, the Sensex had weakened by 0.04 percent.
2016: In the pre-budget month of 2016, the Sensex had weakened by about 6.1 percent.
2015: In the year 2015, Sensex fell by 1.15 percent in the pre-budget month.
2014: After the formation of the NDA government in 2014, the budget was presented in July. Then in the pre-budget month, the Sensex weakened by about 0.50 percent.
2013: In the year 2013, Sensex weakened by 3.5 percent in the pre-budget month.
In 2011, during the pre-budget month, there was a 3 percent weakness in the Sensex. Whereas in 2010 also, the Sensex had weakened by 2 percent in the first month of the budget.

Which sectors will perform well?

This time in the budget, announcements have been made regarding some sectors. These include tourism, real estate, housing, healthcare, defence, railways, infrastructure and aviation sectors. You can keep an eye on fundamentally strong stocks related to these.

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